Just two months in the past that Morgan Rogers stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused while Unai Emery berated him over not reading a penetrating pass. During that period, as the club went six without a win, the question was whether his displays were an indicator or the reason for the side's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, in contrast, the sideline response proved to be much more joyous. After the England international drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim Villa's lead, Emery ripped off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. Villa marched on to ten wins in a row and having failed to win any of their first six fixtures, find themselves just three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Challengers?
It remains an exceptionally difficult question to address. Past precedent, the traditional standing of the club, argues against it. Furthermore, they have not been wholly dominant in many games, while the victories have accumulated.
According to the data, on just two occasions has the team registered an xG significantly higher than the opposition. For a side which has put together a ten-match winning streak, they appear strangely fragile – yet right now the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy looks like to engage in a shootout with rivals and wait for Rogers to save the day with two precise efforts. This was the case away to Leeds, it occurred in London, and it happened versus United.
The initial strike came from a brilliant finish, bent just inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, Manchester United managed more shots and more shots on target. They have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all but one of those games.
A statistical correction might be the most significant challenge they must confront over the coming weeks. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot maintain blasting the ball into the net's top corner indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists an alternative path in which, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players might still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker might resume finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the force he resembled in Germany.
- The defensive duo are due to return from injury, strengthening a sometimes shaky defence.
This could contain the possibility for a sustained push, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought the team would sit in the top three for the holidays. And certainly two months ago, nobody thought the young forward now would be spearheading a title charge while looking like a crucial England player.
This remarkable period must be cherished for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When the hero positioned himself before the North End after the match conducting the cheers, it was clear to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.
